Sahel extremist violence projected to reach record levels

Violence linked to Al-Qaida and Islamic State in Africa’s Sahel region is projected to reach record levels this year. Data compiled by the conflict monitor Acled indicates that incidents involving jihadist groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have increased significantly, rising from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. With 2,145 events already logged so far this year, annual totals may exceed 3,000.

While global terrorism deaths have reached their lowest levels since 2008, the Sahel has seen a sharp rise in fatalities. The UN recorded more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in 2025. Recent escalations include a joint offensive in Mali by the Al-Qaida-linked group Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which utilized drones, car bombs, and raids against government forces and Russian auxiliaries.