Saxony-Anhalt economic study warns of migration policy risks

A study by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) warns that anti-migration policies in Saxony-Anhalt could lead to significant economic losses. If the Alternative for Germany (AfD) were to govern following the upcoming state election, the resulting “xenophobic climate” could result in a loss of up to 3.2 billion euros in value added by 2031.

Researchers estimate that a shift toward migration-restrictive policies could increase the projected labor shortage from 32,000 to 46,000 workers by the end of the next legislative period. IWH President Reint Gropp noted that the state already possesses one of the oldest workforce structures in Germany and a low proportion of foreign employees. He emphasized that the integration of refugees has helped stabilize the labor market in recent years.

Key sectors at risk of exacerbating shortages include gastronomy, civil engineering, logistics, food processing, and medicine. Currently, one in five doctors in Saxony-Anhalt is a foreign national. The study based its projections on comparative cases such as Brexit in the United Kingdom and the rise of Lega Nord in Italy, where immigration dropped significantly following political shifts.