Sberbank report estimates 7% chance of Russian military victory in Ukraine

A leaked internal strategic analysis from Sberbank, Russia’s largest state-owned financial institution, suggests that the probability of Russia achieving a decisive military victory in Ukraine is only 7%. The report, reportedly leaked by the hacking group ‘Black Mirror’, highlights severe structural challenges facing the Russian war effort.

Key findings include massive monthly military casualties estimated between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel. The analysis notes that without further mobilization, Russia faces difficulties in maintaining manpower and protecting its rear from Ukrainian attacks, particularly regarding air defense and autonomous drone technology.

Economically, the report warns of a growing budget deficit exceeding 47 billion euros, which threatens to deplete the National Wealth Fund by the end of the year. High interest rates are also cited as a factor hindering the civilian economy. The most plausible outcome identified is a freezing of hostilities within the next 6 to 12 months.