Science journal 1960 'Doomsday' population prediction approaches 2026 date

A 1960 scientific paper published in the journal Science, titled ‘Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026’, has resurfaced in public discussion. The study, authored by physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot, used mathematical modeling to project human population growth.

The researchers observed that human population growth appeared to follow a hyperbolic curve rather than a standard exponential one, meaning the rate of growth was accelerating. Their model suggested that if these trends continued indefinitely, the population would reach a mathematical singularity—approaching infinity—around November 13, 2026.

Contrary to sensationalist interpretations, the authors did not predict a literal end of the world or mass extinction on that date. Instead, the paper served as a provocative mathematical warning regarding the sustainability of unchecked population growth and the limitations of resources. The specific date of November 13, 2026, coincided with the 115th birthday of Heinz von Foerster and falls on a Friday the 13th.

Modern demographic data shows that the prediction did not materialize as a catastrophe. Global birth rates have declined significantly since the 1960s due to urbanization, increased access to contraception, and changing social structures, causing the population growth curve to deviate from the researchers' original hyperbolic model.