Scientists identify 129-day theoretical limit for weather forecasting

A new study led by climate scientist Wei Zhang from the University of Miami and the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) has identified a theoretical maximum limit for weather forecasting.

While current reliable forecasts typically span 3 to 14 days due to data collection limitations and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere—often referred to as the ‘butterfly effect’—the study explored what would happen if atmospheric variables were known with absolute precision. The research suggests that even with perfect data and knowledge of physical laws, the absolute horizon for weather prediction would be 129 days.