Geoscientist Naci Görür warns of imminent large Marmara earthquake

On 16 July 2026 a shallow 3.9‑magnitude tremor was recorded at 22:15 near Ayvacık in Çanakkale Province, Turkey, at a depth of about 13 km. No casualties or damage were reported.

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, a Turkish geoscientist, said the quake occurred on the Küçükkuyu Fault, part of the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). He warned that the event shows the Marmara region is under increasing stress and that a major earthquake is expected “soon” on the northern branch of the NAF, which runs from İzmit toward the Sea of Marmara and the Istanbul coast.

Görür repeated the warning in multiple posts, drawing reactions on social media and prompting other seismologists to note the long‑term tectonic pressure beneath the Marmara Sea. Experts stressed that while a large quake cannot be precisely timed, the accumulated energy makes the region prone to a future strong event.