Semiconductor industry faces sustained HBM shortage through 2030

The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant shifts driven by high demand for AI-related memory components. SK hynix is pursuing extensive capital returns, with S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasting a potential additional share buyback of up to 40 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2026. This follows a previously approved 40 trillion won program to optimize capital structure.

Simultaneously, market indicators from NVIDIA and SK hynix suggest a persistent shortage of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) that could last until 2030. NVIDIA’s CFO has noted extreme pricing conditions in the memory sector, with price increases exceeding prior expectations.

These conditions provide a positive outlook for Micron, which faces a significant earnings report on September 30. Analysts suggest that industry-wide supply constraints and strong demand for memory chips could drive significant revenue growth and support capacity expansion for major players.