Paraná and Mato Grosso gubernatorial races show intense competition

Recent polling data reveals highly competitive gubernatorial races in the Brazilian states of Paraná and Mato Grosso for the 2026 elections.

In Paraná, Senator Sergio Moro leads the race for governor with 38% of the vote, followed by Sandro Alex at 26% and Requião Filho at 20%. Alex is gaining momentum, particularly in the Curitiba metropolitan area, and is viewed as a successor to Ratinho Junior. The race for the Senate in Paraná also shows a tight contest, with Deltan Dallagnol (33%) and Gleisi Hoffmann (28%) leading the race for the two available seats.

In Mato Grosso, the race is a technical tie between incumbent Governor Otaviano Pivetta and Senator Wellington Fagundes. Pivetta holds 39% of the intention to vote, while Fagundes follows with 35%. Pivetta enjoys high approval ratings of 69.5% and strong support among men and voters with higher education. Conversely, Fagundes shows strength among women and younger voters. For the Senate in Mato Grosso, Mauro Mendes leads the race with 52.3%, followed by Janaina Riva at 33.7%.

Campaign financing in Mato Grosso has also begun to scale, with Pivetta and Fagundes both reporting over R$ 400,000 in initial donations, largely from personal funds and close allies.