Shabelle River nears flood-risk levels in Somalia amid heavy rain forecasts

The Shabelle River is approaching flood-risk levels in Jowhar, Somalia, following a sharp rise in water levels. According to the FAO-SWALIM weekly forecast, the river rose from 2.48 meters to 4.70 meters over the past week, placing it just 30 centimeters below the moderate flood-risk threshold of 5 meters.

As Somalia enters the October-to-December Deyr rainy season, there are heightened concerns regarding El Niño-related flooding. Forecasts indicate a high probability of above-normal seasonal rainfall in central and southern Somalia. Heavy rain is also expected in the Ethiopian highlands, which can cause river levels to rise in Somalia due to upstream runoff.

In response, authorities in Somalia’s South West state have increased preparations. A ministerial committee, chaired by Abdinasir Abdi Arush, met with aid agencies to assess humanitarian needs in the Lower Shabelle region. Officials are working to coordinate with humanitarian organizations to ensure rapid assistance for riverine communities that are particularly vulnerable to displacement and disrupted access to essential services.