Slovakia faces potential loss of EU funds and rising exchange‑rate risks

An analysis by the Council for Budget Responsibility warns that a possible suspension of EU cohesion funds could remove up to €5 billion of financing from Slovakia, wiping out more than 22,000 jobs and cutting household consumption by nearly €5 billion by the end of the decade. The study estimates a slowdown of economic growth by about 0.8 percentage points, an increase in the public‑finance deficit of 1.7 % of GDP and a public‑debt ratio edging toward 85 % of GDP. The scenario mirrors the 2022 suspension of €6.3 billion in funds to Hungary over similar governance concerns.

At the same time, Slovak companies are grappling with exchange‑rate risk despite the country using the euro. Roughly half of Slovakia's foreign trade is with non‑euro partners such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, the United States, China, South Korea and the United Kingdom. Fluctuations in the Czech koruna, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, British pound or US dollar can erode profit margins; a 3 % weakening of the koruna could cost a firm exporting €100,000 worth of goods thousands of euros. Higher energy prices further amplify the impact of currency movements on business costs.