Buenos Aires province economy stalls, municipal growth patterns shift

A report by the Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP) analysed 63 productive chains that account for 88 % of the province’s output between 2016 and 2025. The study finds that the Buenos Aires provincial economy has been essentially stagnant over the decade, with the level of activity in 2025 roughly equal to that at the start of the period after cycles of decline, recovery, and renewed downturn.

The research highlights a pronounced geographic re‑composition. Small interior municipalities – such as Pila, Monte Hermoso, Pinamar, Roque Pérez, Saladillo and several others – recorded the strongest growth, driven by non‑traditional agro‑ganadero activities, tourism and, in some cases, peanut production. The second ring of the Conurbano contributed most to provincial growth overall, powered by logistics and commerce.

Conversely, the first ring of the Conurbano suffered the deepest setbacks as manufacturing, especially capital‑goods production, collapsed, compounded by crises in the dairy and soybean sectors. The study classifies municipalities into four groups – leaders, emergents, mature and laggards – based on short‑ and long‑term performance.

Overall, the provincial product remained flat, but the internal distribution of economic activity shifted markedly, with growth concentrated in a handful of interior towns and decline concentrated in the manufacturing‑heavy suburbs.