Smartphone market faces decline in budget devices through 2030

The global smartphone market is undergoing a structural shift as the entry-level segment faces a significant decline. According to reports from Counterpoint Research, shipments of smartphones priced under $200 are projected to decrease by approximately 40% between 2025 and 2030, representing a loss of over 230 million units annually.

This contraction is driven by rising costs for essential components, specifically memory chips and semiconductors, alongside increasing minimum technical requirements for modern software and AI features. Manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing higher-margin, mid-range, and premium devices to offset these costs. Consequently, the global replacement cycle is lengthening, with consumers expected to keep devices for closer to four years.

Regional markets are already reflecting these trends. In Brazil, smartphone sales fell by 11% in the first half of 2026, attributed to the memory chip crisis and shifting consumer behavior. While Samsung maintains a leading market share in Brazil, Apple saw significant growth in the region. Analysts warn that the shrinking supply of affordable devices could slow mobile internet adoption in low-to-middle-income countries.