Social Security 2027 COLA estimates narrow as inflation data nears

Forecasters are narrowing their estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), with predictions currently clustering in the mid-3% range. Major organizations, including AARP and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, have provided estimates between 3.4% and 3.6%. The final figure depends on the September inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will provide the final data point for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) calculation.

Some analysts suggest that recent economic policies and energy costs, including rising diesel prices, may influence the final reading. While higher COLA rates increase purchasing power for the more than 71 million Social Security beneficiaries, they also present potential long-term fiscal challenges for the retirement program.

Separately, Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients will receive two payments in October. This occurs because the November 1 payment date falls on a Sunday, necessitating an early disbursement on October 30 to comply with federal law. Experts note this is a timing adjustment rather than a bonus and advise recipients to manage their funds carefully to cover November expenses.