Social Security 2027 COLA estimates adjusted following inflation data

New estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) suggest beneficiaries may see increases ranging from 3.2% to 3.6%. These projections follow July inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% from a year ago, a slight decrease from the 3.5% recorded in June.

The Senior Citizens League previously predicted a 3.8% increase, but recent cooling inflation has lowered expectations. While a 3.6% increase would still exceed the 2.8% adjustment seen in 2026, advocacy groups note that seniors on fixed incomes continue to face high costs for essentials like groceries and energy.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) issued a lower estimate of 3.2%. The CRFB noted that while higher COLAs provide near-term support, they also increase costs for a Social Security fund that faces potential insolvency in six years. The committee has proposed reforms, such as COLA caps for high-income earners, to address long-term solvency concerns.