Social Security COLA estimates for 2027 rise to 3.4%–3.6%

Social Security beneficiaries are projected to receive a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027 compared to the 2.8% increase seen in 2026. New estimates following the release of August inflation data suggest the 2027 boost could fall between 3.4% and 3.6%.

By law, the annual COLA is determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index for urban wage earners and retirees (CPI-W) for the months of July, August, and September. Recent data shows consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year ago, while the CPI-W increased by 3.5%.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a 3.4% adjustment, while the AARP projects a 3.6% increase based on recent inflation readings and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projections. These adjustments are intended to help older adults, many of whom rely on Social Security for their primary income, manage rising costs.