Sofala province faces drought and flood risks due to El Niño

Authorities in Mozambique's Sofala province have warned that approximately 436,000 to 439,000 people—over 10 percent of the provincial population—could be affected by extreme weather during the 2026–2027 rainy and cyclone season.

The Provincial Emergency Operations Committee (COE) approved a contingency plan valued at 43 million meticais (approximately $672,000 USD) to prepare for these events. The risks are driven by a strong El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to prevail between October 2026 and March 2027.

Weather forecasts indicate a complex scenario: while some districts like Marromeu may see near-normal rainfall, many others, including Beira, Gorongosa, and Nhamatanda, are expected to experience below-average precipitation, increasing the risk of drought. Conversely, there is a significant risk of moderate flooding in low-lying areas and urban centers, particularly within the Savane, Búzi, Púnguè, and Save river basins between January and March 2027.

To mitigate these risks, the National Disaster Management Institute (INGD) has positioned 75 tons of emergency supplies in strategic locations. Additionally, a World Bank-funded climate insurance mechanism has been activated to assist 280,000 people currently facing food insecurity following previous flooding earlier this year.