Solar module costs in the US approach global parity amid supply shifts

A report from technical advisory firm Intertek CEA projects a strategic shift in the global solar manufacturing market through 2026 and 2027. Global photovoltaic installations are expected to reach approximately 638 GW in 2026, a slight decrease from the 650 GW projected for 2025. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a stagnating Chinese market caused by declining subsidies, stricter energy consumption regulations, and new efficiency standards.

Chinese suppliers are expected to increase module prices through 2027 as they attempt to recover profit margins and offset material costs. This shift may lead to reduced export volumes in favor of higher-margin international sales. The report highlights a severe and persistent structural overcapacity across the solar supply chain; for instance, module manufacturing capacity is estimated at 1,908 GW against a demand of only 638 GW.

Regional cost disparities remain significant. Fully integrated TOPCon module production in China remains the global minimum at below $0.12/W. In contrast, manufacturing costs in India and Southeast Asia are around $0.17/W. While U.S. manufacturing costs for TOPCon modules using domestic cells exceed $0.37/W before incentives, the gap is narrowing as U.S.-made modules approach cost parity with global offerings when tax credits are applied.