South Africa and Portugal adjust economic growth forecasts

South Africa's National Treasury has lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.2%. This revision, presented during the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, remains more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund's projection of 1% for the same year. The Treasury expects growth of 1.6% in 2027 and 2% in 2029. Inflation is projected to average 4.4% in 2026 due to rising oil prices linked to conflicts in the Middle East, with a return to the 3% target expected by 2029.

In Portugal, the Competitiveness Forum predicts economic growth between 2.1% and 2.3% for the current year, with a slight slowdown to between 2.0% and 2.2% expected in 2027. The institution noted that while growth is accelerating compared to 2025, structural weaknesses and high energy prices remain concerns. Portuguese inflation is anticipated to rise from 2.3% in 2025 to between 2.8% and 3.0% in 2026, before receding in 2027.