South Africa cuts 2026 citrus export forecasts amid multiple risks

Citrus producers in Southern Africa have significantly lowered their export forecasts for the 2026 season. The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) has revised Valencia orange projections down by approximately 8% to 58 million 15-kg cartons, while Navel orange estimates have dropped by 19% to 24.3 million 15-kg cartons. The total citrus export forecast now stands at 197.9 million cartons, compared to the April estimate of 209.4 million.

Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the CGA, attributed the decline to a convergence of multiple risk factors, including geopolitical shocks, extreme weather, market supply and demand disruptions, exchange rate risks, and logistical challenges. Specifically, the conflict in the Middle East has blocked trade routes to markets that typically absorb 20% of South African citrus exports.

Additional pressures include port congestion, a shortage of empty containers, and rising shipping costs. Furthermore, extreme weather events—ranging from heavy rains in Limpopo and Mpumalanga to severe flooding in the Western and Eastern Cape—have impacted production volumes and fruit quality. The industry warned that further downward revisions may occur if current market conditions persist.