South Africa faces economic and drought risks from exceptional El Niño event

South Africa is facing an exceptional El Niño event that climate scientists warn could become one of the strongest on record, peaking between November 2026 and February 2027. This phenomenon, characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters, typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Southern Africa, posing significant risks of drought, reduced agricultural output, strained water resources, and increased wildfire threats.

The South African Reserve Bank has identified El Niño as a potential inflation risk that could pressure economic growth and prices. While recent rainy seasons have improved dam levels and maize yields, providing some buffer, experts caution that these do not guarantee protection against the upcoming cycle.

Research into the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) highlights significant rainfall variability, particularly in the eastern escarpment. Historical data shows a strong correlation between ENSO phases and rainfall, with El Niño events notably suppressing rainfall during the December-February period. Improved forecasting is considered essential for water resource management and mitigating economic losses.