Southeast Europe expects warmer than average September

Long-term forecasts indicate that September 2026 is expected to be warmer than normal levels in Southeast Europe, including Greece. Based on an analysis of 400 scenarios provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 85% of models suggest that average temperatures will exceed the historical norm established between 1993 and 2016.

Specific probabilities for temperature deviations include a 34% chance of a positive deviation between 0 and 1°C, a 35% chance between 1 and 2°C, and a 16% chance of exceeding 2°C. The average value across all 400 scenarios suggests a positive temperature deviation of +1.03°C for the region. Conversely, the likelihood of lower-than-average temperatures remains low, with only a 13% probability of a negative deviation between 0 and 1°C.

This warming trend is projected across much of the European continent. Average deviations are expected to exceed +2°C in France and parts of Eastern Europe. These forecasts are derived from data provided by eight international forecasting centers, including ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France, NCEP, DWD, CMCC, JMA, and BOM. Experts note that long-term forecasts carry significant uncertainty and represent general monthly or seasonal trends rather than specific daily local weather patterns.