Southern Africa prepares for El Niño drought and heat risks

Southern African agriculture is facing a renewed El Niño climate cycle, bringing increased risks of drought, heat stress, and food insecurity. While the phenomenon is expected to increase climate volatility and threaten water availability and infrastructure, the agricultural sector enters this period with a stronger foundation than during the 2015-2017 and 2023-2024 drought periods due to improved dam levels and healthier soil moisture profiles.

In Lesotho, the government is actively preparing for hotter and drier conditions by securing drought-resistant seeds and advising farmers to stockpile animal feed and water. Agriculture Minister Selibe Mochoboroane noted that while recent rains may sustain crops through December, farmers must prepare for worsening conditions. The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum has forecast a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures for the region between October and December.

Past El Niño events have had severe consequences in the region; in July 2024, Lesotho declared a national food insecurity disaster. Experts warn that heat associated with the current cycle could lead to increased health risks, including waterborne diseases and heat-related deaths.