Southwest Pacific faces increased tropical cyclone risk due to El Niño

Meteorologists are forecasting increased tropical cyclone activity across the Southwest Pacific for the upcoming season, driven largely by a strong El Niño event.

The Fiji Meteorological Office predicts that two to three tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2026–27 season, with one to two potentially reaching severe Category 3 to 5 intensity. Due to El Niño, there is an elevated risk for Fiji’s Northern and Eastern Divisions.

In the broader Southwest Pacific, scientists expect an increase in cyclone activity relative to recent years. While long-term cyclone numbers in the region have been gradually decreasing, current indicators suggest higher activity, particularly to the east of the International Date Line. The Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi anticipates between 11 and 15 named tropical cyclones for its area of responsibility.

For New Zealand, the tropical cyclone risk is considered normal, though there is potential for decaying storms to affect northern and western areas facing the Tasman Sea. The official tropical cyclone season in the region typically runs from November 1 to April 30.