S&P 500 earnings projected to rise 31% in Q3 2026

XP Research projects that S&P 500 companies will see an aggregate earnings per share (EPS) increase of approximately 31.4% for the third quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. This estimate of US$ 91 per share sits 1.6% above the market consensus of 29.2%.

The growth is expected to be driven primarily by the technology and energy sectors. The energy sector is projected to lead with an estimated 114% annual growth in earnings, supported by high oil prices. The technology sector is anticipated to see a 65% increase in EPS, fueled by investments in artificial intelligence and memory semiconductors.

Analysts note that this cycle deviates from historical patterns where companies typically provide conservative guidance that leads to upward revisions later. In this instance, projections were revised upward throughout the quarter, meaning much of the positive surprise may already be priced into current valuations. Consequently, the focus for investors may shift from whether companies meet profit targets to whether they can provide future growth outlooks that justify current stock valuations.