S&P 500 earnings projected to rise over 29% YoY in Q2 2026

FactSet analyst John Butters forecasts that the S&P 500’s aggregate earnings will grow by more than 29% year‑over‑year in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest increase in five years. The surge would be the largest since the fourth quarter of 2021, when earnings rose 32%. The projection is driven by a high number of companies beating analysts’ earnings‑per‑share estimates, which pushes the calculated growth rate higher. Butters said, “When actual results replace prior estimates in the aggregate growth calculation, the index’s earnings expansion rate rises.”

By 10 July, 18 S&P 500 constituents had reported Q2 results, reinforcing the outlook of a positive earnings revision for the index as a whole.