S&P affirms Belize credit rating, cites lack of fiscal reform

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Belize’s B-/B sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, noting that while the economy is expected to grow moderately, fiscal and external pressures remain manageable. The agency predicts that the ruling People’s United Party (PUP), led by John Briceño, will likely remain in power through the next general election in 2030, bolstered by its supermajority in the 2025 elections.

However, S&P noted that the PUP’s political dominance has not yet translated into necessary fiscal reforms. Specifically, the agency highlighted the lack of progress on the Pension Plan for Public Officials, the establishment of a sinking fund for Blue Bond amortization payments, and the implementation of a fiscal responsibility law.

S&P also pointed to Belize’s history of five sovereign defaults over the last two decades as a factor that continues to limit the country’s access to external commercial financing. While the government has made efforts to improve tax collection through electronic invoicing and plans to establish a Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authority by 2027, long-term debt sustainability remains a concern due to policy choices made by successive administrations.