S&P Global warns of global food security risks by 2027

A report from S&P Global warns that a convergence of factors could drive up global food prices and threaten food security by 2027. Key drivers include rising costs for fertilizers and fuel, trade restrictions stemming from international conflicts, and the potential for an intense El Niño weather pattern to disrupt agricultural production.

The report notes a delayed impact on food markets because farmers must purchase essential inputs like seeds, fertilizer, and diesel months before crops are harvested. Consequently, the current squeeze on farm budgets may not fully manifest in food prices until 2027.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are specifically cited as a risk to the supply of agricultural inputs. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten the transit of approximately 30% of global commercial urea, half of the world's sulfur trade, and 21% of ammonia. Major producing regions such as Brazil, Australia, and India are identified as being particularly exposed to these shifts.