SpaceX IPO valuation falls as investors grapple with share allocation

SpaceX's June 2024 public offering became the largest IPO in history, initially valuing the company at roughly $1.8 trillion and raising about $75 billion. Within weeks the share price slipped below the IPO level, trading near $118 and touching a low of $115, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value.

The sharp decline sparked a surge in short‑selling activity; data from Ortex estimate paper gains for short sellers at about $15.5 billion. At the same time, allocation of shares remains fiercely competitive, with many investors receiving only a small fraction of the shares they request in the tender offers priced at $112 per share.

Investors are also watching the upcoming lock‑up expirations in early August that will release more than 900 million shares, and the first quarterly earnings report slated for early August. A new on‑chain perpetual futures contract on the Hyperliquid platform enables leveraged short exposure to SpaceX shares, reflecting growing interest in synthetic equity products.

Looking ahead, market commentary suggests a potential full public listing could occur around 2026, with valuation scenarios ranging from $350 billion to $800 billion and possible retail allocations. The ongoing volatility and allocation challenges keep the SpaceX IPO at the center of investor attention.