SpaceX IPO triggers volatile stock, valuation debate after first month

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) went public on 12 June 2026 with an offering price of $135 per share. The stock opened near $150, surged to an intraday high of $225 and pushed the company’s market capitalization briefly above $2 trillion. By mid‑July the share price had retreated to roughly $145‑$150, about a 26 % drop from its post‑IPO peak.

Investors who bought at the IPO price now hold a modest gain, while those who entered at the first‑day high face losses. Analysts are split: some raise price targets to $210‑$300 on expectations that Starlink, Starship and emerging AI‑focused data‑center services will drive long‑term growth; others argue the current valuation is far above fundamentals, citing targets as low as $30‑$115 per share and highlighting the limited public float (under 5 % at IPO) and impending insider lock‑up releases that could flood the market with shares.

The IPO’s scale also affected related space‑focused ETFs, which have posted some of their worst monthly performances since the pandemic as capital shifted toward SpaceX. While the company’s core launch business remains robust, many market participants now judge its future worth on the success of its satellite internet (Starlink) and AI infrastructure ambitions, with some analysts projecting a market cap of $3‑$5 trillion and a few speculating potentials up to $10 trillion.