SpaceX's First Post‑IPO Earnings Report Highlights AI Spending and Upcoming Lock‑up Share Release

SpaceX will publish its first quarterly earnings report on August 4, 2026, the first since its record‑breaking June 2026 IPO. The filing is expected to show 2025 revenue of roughly $18 billion to $18.7 billion and a net loss of about $5 billion, with Q1 2026 revenue up 15% year‑over‑year. Starlink’s subscriber base doubled in 2025, driving growth that analysts hope can help fund the company’s expanding AI and space ventures. The AI segment generated about $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue and consumed $7.72 billion in capital spending in the January‑March quarter; analysts project AI capex to rise to $10.2 billion in the April‑June quarter, part of a $30 billion annual AI program that critics say may be unsustainable without Starlink profits.

SpaceX’s lock‑up structure is tiered. The first tranche of approximately 911.5 million shares – about 20% of the early‑release pool – becomes eligible for sale on August 6, potentially increasing the public float from roughly 4‑5% to as much as 40% by December 2026. Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion‑share stake remains locked until June 2027. The company’s inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 under the new fast‑track rules gives it a 1% weighting in the index, a change that analysts say will have minimal impact on the Invesco QQQ ETF.

Investors are watching the earnings for clues on whether Starlink’s growth can sustain the ambitious AI spending and on any comments about a possible SpaceX‑Tesla merger. Market sentiment remains cautious, with SpaceX shares down more than 40% from their post‑IPO highs.