Spain and Peru central banks tweak growth and inflation forecasts amid Middle East war impact

The Bank of Spain raised its 2024 inflation outlook by six‑tenths of a point to 3.6%, attributing the increase to higher energy, industrial goods and service prices linked to the war in the Middle East. It left its medium‑term GDP growth projections unchanged at 2.3% for 2026 and 1.7% for 2027, noting that Spain’s economy remains more resilient than the euro area average. The bank also highlighted the housing market as a major social and economic challenge that could curb long‑term growth.

The Central Bank of Peru reported that, despite the shock from the Middle East conflict, the global economy is expected to grow about 3.1% in 2026. It said the negative impact of higher energy prices on Europe and Japan would be offset by growth in the United States and China, as well as by the dynamism of AI‑related industries, the energy transition and expansive fiscal policies. The bank noted that the recent US‑Iran de‑escalation should further ease oil prices, supporting inflation trends worldwide.