El Niño intensification triggers climate warnings across Caribbean and South America

Climate scientists and government authorities are warning of an intensifying El Niño phenomenon that is expected to bring severe weather extremes to the Caribbean and parts of South America through 2026 and 2027.

In the Caribbean, the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the University of the West Indies (UWI) warn of rapid intensification toward very strong El Niño conditions between October and December 2026. This poses significant risks of severe drought, extreme heat, and marine heatwaves. Belize and Jamaica have been specifically flagged as vulnerable to agricultural losses that could threaten food security.

In Ecuador, authorities and experts are organizing to prepare infrastructure and urban centers for potential flooding and intense rainfall. The National Risk Management Secretariat is coordinating with the public and private sectors to develop prevention strategies, drawing on expertise from Panama, Brazil, and Argentina. Meanwhile, in Catamarca, Argentina, health officials are on alert for increased risks of diseases such as dengue, leptospirosis, and hantavirus due to potential changes in humidity and rainfall patterns.