Spain poll projects PP and Vox close to majority as PSOE falls

An Ipsos poll commissioned by La Vanguardia shows the centre‑right bloc of the Partido Popular (PP) and the far‑right Vox on the brink of an absolute majority in the next Spanish general election. The survey projects PP at 132 seats and Vox at 64, together reaching 196 seats, just above the 176 required for a majority. By contrast, the governing PSOE would drop to about 111 seats, while the left‑wing alliance Sumar would fall to roughly 12 seats.

The poll also notes shifts among Catalan nationalist parties: ERC could gain a seat to hold eight seats, Junts would lose four to end with three, and the new Aliança Catalana might secure three seats, potentially contesting Junts’ right‑wing base. Regional figures such as Castilla‑La Mancha President Emiliano García‑Page have highlighted the trend, warning that the PSOE faces a “batacazo” and that the PP‑Vox partnership is becoming the likely governing configuration.