Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels decline amid rising oil price forecasts

The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has seen a significant decline, falling to approximately 284 million barrels in late September from roughly 398 million barrels in late April. This reduction comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and declining global inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts, projecting Brent crude to average approximately $98 per barrel in 2026 and roughly $105 per barrel for the fourth quarter.

Global oil stocks are also tightening, with estimates suggesting a decline of 1.9 million barrels per day during the third quarter. As the SPR shrinks, the United States faces reduced flexibility to respond to unexpected market disruptions without competing directly in the commercial market.

Industry executives hold varying opinions on the practical withdrawal floor for the reserve. A survey of 125 oil and gas firms indicated that 31% of respondents believe the minimum level should be between 100 million and 150 million barrels, while 21% estimated a floor between 50 million and 100 million barrels. The U.S. is currently fulfilling a commitment to release 172 million barrels as part of a broader 400-million-barrel effort by International Energy Agency member nations.