Study warns higher risk of a major California earthquake

A new scientific study indicates that the probability of a large earthquake on California’s San Andreas Fault may be greater than previously thought. Researchers modeled a magnitude‑7.8 rupture, showing up to two minutes of shaking and projecting hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage. The analysis highlighted unusually high stress levels in parts of Southern California’s fault system, especially near Cajon Pass where the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults intersect.

The authors warned that critical infrastructure such as aqueducts could be disrupted, and emphasized that the economic and social fallout could be severe, potentially bankrupting many residents. The findings underscore the need for continued preparedness, building retrofits, and updated policy measures to mitigate the anticipated impact.