Super El Nino projected to cause 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide

Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that a powerful Super El Nino could cause approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. The projections are based on temperature forecasts combined with research across more than 24,000 global regions.

Africa’s Sahel region is expected to experience the most severe impact, with an estimated 66,800 additional deaths. Nigeria is projected to account for nearly half of these fatalities in the region, with approximately 31,400 deaths. Other heavily affected countries include Sudan, with 17,500 projected deaths, Niger with 10,000, and Chad with 8,000.

South Africa is also identified as one of the 50 countries facing the highest projected increase in heat-related mortality, with an estimated 1,200 additional deaths during the same six-month period. The researchers note that extreme heat vulnerability is compounded in regions like the Sahel, where high poverty rates and limited access to electricity hinder the ability to use cooling infrastructure.