Super‑strong El Niño forecast to raise global commodity prices and threaten China's marine sector

The Pacific Ocean is experiencing an El Niño event with unusually high sea‑surface temperatures, a climate pattern that reshapes global weather. Analysts warn it could lift food and energy prices worldwide, as Brazil's coffee and sugar output, Indonesia's palm oil, and other key crops may face reduced yields. The World Bank and IMF note a potential 5% rise in non‑energy commodity prices and tighter shipping conditions, exemplified by the Panama Canal lowering its maximum draft for transiting vessels.

China's National Marine Environmental Forecast Center expects this autumn‑winter to bring a super‑strong El Niño, possibly surpassing the 1997/98 peak. Sea‑surface temperatures off China's coast are already about 0.5 °C above the 1991‑2020 average, threatening aquaculture and marine ecosystems. While fewer typhoons may form, those that do could be stronger, raising the risk of storm surges, high waves, and flooding. Forecasts also point to heightened summer rainfall in the Yangtze basin in 2027, increasing flood and landslide hazards.