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Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson in new Maine Senate poll
A new poll from the New York Times, Siena Research Institute, and Portland Press Herald shows Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins holding a narrow 49% to 46% lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race. The three-point advantage falls within the survey's five-point margin of error. This result marks the first major poll this fall to show Collins in the lead, reversing previous trends that favored Jackson.
While the poll shows Collins ahead, prediction markets suggest Jackson remains the favorite. On Kalshi, Jackson's win probability recently dipped to 66% from above 70%, while on Polymarket, his probability sits at 67%. Despite the shift, both markets still view the race as highly competitive.
The campaign is also facing scrutiny following a ProPublica report alleging a potential pay-to-play arrangement involving Collins and a defense contractor. Collins has dismissed the investigation as a “partisan hit job,” asserting that previous FBI inquiries into similar allegations cleared her and her staff.
Entities
Kalshi · Maine · ProPublica · Siena Research Institute · Susan Collins · Troy Jackson
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] On Polymarket, Jackson's win probability is 67%. defirate.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The three-point lead for Collins is within the poll's five-point margin of error. 100percentfedup.com · justthenews.com · freerepublic.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have both rated the Maine Senate race as a 'Toss Up'. justthenews.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Jackson leads Collins by 18 points among voters aged 30 to 44 and by 34 points among Hispanic respondents. justthenews.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Five percent of the 619 respondents in the poll were undecided. justthenews.com · freerepublic.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins by nine points among women. justthenews.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Republican Senator Susan Collins leads Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in a Maine Senate poll. 100percentfedup.com · defirate.com · justthenews.com · freerepublic.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] On the Kalshi prediction market, Jackson's win probability dropped to 66% from above 70%. defirate.com