Swedish defense report: Morocco holds advantage in Western Sahara

A report by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) indicates that Morocco holds a clear military and political advantage in the Western Sahara conflict. The 92-page study, titled ‘Western Sahara – Half a Century of Conflict in Northwestern Africa’, suggests that the likelihood of the Polisario Front achieving independence within the next decade is ‘extremely low’ due to Morocco’s military modernization and increasing international diplomatic support.

The report identifies the most probable scenario through 2036 as a continued unresolved conflict, characterized by a growing international acceptance of Moroccan control over the region. A second likely scenario involves the United Nations adopting an autonomy framework within Moroccan borders.

However, the study notes a distinction between the regional conflict and a potential direct confrontation between Morocco and Algeria. While Morocco maintains an advantage over the Polisario Front, the report assesses Algeria as the militarily stronger power in a hypothetical direct war, citing a defense budget of approximately 40 billion euros compared to Morocco’s 20 billion euros.