Syria undergoes political transition following Assad regime collapse

Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Syria has entered a period of significant political and military transition. The regime, which held power for over five decades, was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Ahmed al-Sharaa, a leader within HTS, has assumed control in Damascus and has outlined a roadmap for a transitional period aimed at restoring state unity, rebuilding institutions, and reviving the economy.

In the immediate aftermath of the regime's fall, Israel conducted an extensive military campaign known as Operation Arrow of Bashan. This operation involved 498 strikes targeting 320 strategic positions, including airbases, air-defense systems, and naval assets. Israeli officials claim these strikes destroyed between 70% and 80% of Syria’s strategic military forces, with some advanced surface-to-air missile systems seeing up to 90% degradation. While the European Union Agency for Asylum noted these figures have not been independently verified, open-source analysis suggests extensive damage to the Syrian air force and missile infrastructure.

The new administration faces significant challenges, including maintaining a monopoly on violence against groups like the Islamic State, managing Turkish presence in northern border regions, and navigating the expanded Israeli military presence in the southwest.