Taiwan GDP Forecast Tops 10% Amid AI Export Surge to 2028

Taiwan Economic Research Institute (Taiwan Economic Institute) director Zhang Jianyi said the institute will raise its 2023 growth forecast to above 10%, citing exceptionally strong export performance driven by AI‑related demand. The revision aligns with forecasts from Academia Sinica (10.16%) and the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (9.64%).

Zhang emphasized that AI opportunities in Taiwan’s semiconductor, GPU, TPU and related components will remain robust through at least 2028, despite current high costs for compute power. He expects expanding production capacity and broader chip adoption to gradually lower costs and sustain the AI supply chain.

He also warned that recent stock‑market turbulence, including a historic single‑day drop, should not be read as an AI bubble burst, attributing the volatility to leverage dynamics rather than a fundamental decline in AI demand. The outlook underscores Taiwan’s strategic position amid U.S.–China competition and ongoing trade talks such as the Taiwan‑U.S. ART agreement, which he likens to a free‑trade deal and may open doors with the EU and Japan.