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Turkey economic outlook: Disinflation continues amid revised growth forecasts
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) President Fatih Karahan stated in New York that the disinflation process is continuing despite challenging supply conditions and geopolitical pressures on oil prices. He noted that while service inflation remains sticky, there is a noticeable improvement in rent inflation, supported by weakening domestic demand.
Economic forecasts for Turkey have seen recent revisions from major institutions. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects growth of 2.8 percent in 2026 and 3.6 percent in 2027, while the OECD has revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 2.7 percent and its 2026 inflation forecast up to 31.5 percent. The EBRD has also lowered its 2026 growth projection to 3 percent, citing high inflation and tight financial conditions.
TCMB's September 2026 Household Expectation Survey reveals that the 12-month ahead inflation expectation has risen to 45.60 percent, and the USD/TRY exchange rate expectation has reached 55.90 TL. Regarding investment preferences, gold has become the top choice for households at 43 percent, while interest in real estate has declined to 33.6 percent.
Entities
Antalya · Asian Development Bank · Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey · Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · DEIK Turkey-USA Business Council · European Bank for Reconstruction and Development · Fatih Karahan · IMF · New York · OECD · Recep Tayyip Erdoğan · Turkey
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 9 SOURCES] The disinflation process is continuing despite challenging supply conditions. www.borsagundem.com.tr · www.yenialanya.com · www.haberturk.com · www.gazeteabc.com · www.internethaber.com
- [● 8 SOURCES] The 12-month ahead inflation expectation of households is 45.60 percent. www.sozcu.com.tr · boldmedya.com · finans.mynet.com · www.yenikiroba.com
- [● 9 SOURCES] There is a noticeable improvement in rent inflation. www.borsagundem.com.tr · www.yenialanya.com · www.haberturk.com · www.gazeteabc.com · www.internethaber.com
- [● 7 SOURCES] Geopolitical developments are increasing oil prices. www.borsagundem.com.tr · www.gazeteabc.com · www.yenialanya.com · www.internethaber.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] ADB expects Turkey to grow by 2.8 percent in 2026 and 3.6 percent in 2027. www.cnbce.com · noktahaberyorum.com
- [● 8 SOURCES] Weakening domestic demand is supporting the disinflation process. www.borsagundem.com.tr · www.yenialanya.com · www.gazeteabc.com · www.internethaber.com
- [● 9 SOURCES] The 12-month ahead USD/TRY exchange rate expectation is 55.90 TL. www.sozcu.com.tr · www.yenicaggazetesi.com · boldmedya.com · www.yenikiroba.com · finans.mynet.com
- [● 6 SOURCES] OECD raised Turkey's 2026 inflation forecast to 31.5 percent. www.gzt.com · noktahaberyorum.com · www.cnbce.com · cryptobriefing.com · haber.doviz.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Gold has become the top investment preference for households at 43 percent. www.yenikiroba.com · finans.mynet.com