TenneT warns of increasing Dutch electricity supply risks from 2030

TenneT’s annual “Monitor Voorzieningszekerheid” shows that the risk of electricity shortages in the Netherlands will rise sharply from 2030. In all scenarios the national supply‑security norm of an average maximum of four hours of deficit per year is exceeded, with projected shortages of up to 37–46 hours per year by 2035. The shortfall is driven by a rapid increase in demand from electrification (e.g., electric cars, heat pumps) and a decline in dispatchable generation as coal and gas plants are phased out.

TenneT recommends early action, including the introduction of a capacity‑mechanism, keeping some fossil‑fuel plants operating longer than planned, expanding storage and demand‑response options, and strengthening cross‑border cooperation. Imports from neighboring countries could rise from about 1 GW in 2028 to nearly 9 GW in 2035, while Belgium, Germany and Denmark are expected to face similar deficits. In a Europe‑wide scarcity scenario, electricity prices could surge to €3,000–€4,000 per megawatt hour, raising costs for Dutch consumers. TenneT urges the government and industry to make binding decisions to ensure a reliable, sustainable power system.