Tesla Roadster’s heliocentric orbit will bring close Earth approaches in coming centuries

SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s red Tesla Roadster aboard the Falcon Heavy in 2018, placing the car on a heliocentric trajectory that crosses the orbits of Earth and Mars. New simulations by a team led by astrophysicist Hana Rajna at the University of Toronto show that the vehicle’s path is unstable over long periods, with a notable close approach expected in 2091 when the Roadster will pass near Earth at a relatively small astronomical distance. The researchers estimate a 6 % chance of impact within the next million years, rising to 22‑50 % over several tens of millions of years, though any collision would result in the car burning up in the atmosphere and pose no danger to the surface.

An amateur astronomer in Turkey initially mistook the object for a new asteroid in early 2025, prompting the recent analysis. The study highlights how the Roadster serves as a unique test case for understanding the dynamics of artificial objects moving through the solar system.