Texas and Iowa Senate races reclassified as toss-ups

The Cook Political Report has reclassified the 2026 U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” signaling increased competitiveness in these contests.

In Texas, the Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico is now considered too close to call. Analysts noted that Talarico has gained momentum through voter resonance and fundraising, while Paxton faces challenges stemming from a history of scandal. Additionally, the report adjusted the Texas gubernatorial race between incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa from “solid Republican” to “leans Republican.”

The shift in Iowa also places that Senate contest in the toss-up category. While the Republican Party maintains a structural advantage across the national Senate map, these reclassifications suggest a potentially more volatile political landscape for the 2026 cycle.