Texas faces projected electricity supply shortfall by 2030

Texas faces a potential electricity supply shortfall as peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory is projected to reach 120 GW by 2030. This represents a growth of more than 30% above recent peak levels.

According to a report from Ascend Analytics, several factors are limiting the ability to bring new generation online, including gas turbine shortages, interconnection bottlenecks, and multi-year development timelines. The report suggests that ERCOT’s energy-only market may not provide sufficient revenue certainty to finance the necessary dispatchable generation.

The large-load queue has expanded by over 200 GW since 2024, driven by industrial developments such as data centers, manufacturing, and cryptocurrency. While ERCOT’s adjusted load forecast sits at 138 GW, Ascend Analytics estimates 120 GW, accounting for potential delays and a 55.4% success rate for proposed loads.