Texas gubernatorial race between Abbott and Hinojosa shows statistical tie

As the November 3, 2026, election approaches, Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces an unusually tight race for a fourth term against Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Recent polling shows the candidates in a statistical dead heat, with results varying by source. For instance, ReconMR reported Abbott leading 48% to 47%, while the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project showed Hinojosa with a 49% to 48% advantage.

Key campaign issues include the expansion of AI data centers. Hinojosa has criticized the rapid development and called for greater community protections regarding water and electricity costs. Conversely, Abbott has signaled a shift in stance, calling for a pause on certain approvals and proposing a ban on data center development in rural neighborhoods to eliminate existing tax breaks.

In addition to the gubernatorial race, the contest for the U.S. Senate seat is also highly competitive. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico are polling neck-and-neck. Hinojosa’s team has also issued proposed terms for a debate at the Governor’s Mansion, though Abbott has not yet confirmed his participation.