Texas pecan production forecast rises despite weather and disease risks

Texas pecan growers are anticipating an increased yield for the 2026 season. The Tri-State Pecan Growers Association estimates production at approximately 42 million pounds, while Monte Nesbitt of the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service estimates a yield of around 39 million pounds, up from 32 million pounds last year.

Despite the higher production forecast, several factors threaten the crop's quality and grower margins. Extreme heat and dry weather during the August and September nut-filling period may lead to shriveled or malformed kernels. Additionally, a wet spring increased the prevalence of diseases such as pecan scab, downy spot, and powdery mildew.

Economic pressures are also mounting for producers. Rising costs for diesel, gasoline, and fertilizer, combined with increased spending on pest and disease management, are squeezing profit margins. While wholesale prices for the 2025 crop showed improvement—with some lots approaching $3 per pound in early 2026—the final market opening for the 2026 crop will depend on harvest volumes and kernel quality across Georgia, Louisiana, and East Texas.