Texas Senate race spending projected to reach $440 million

The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico is seeing unprecedented levels of campaign spending. Projections from AdImpact suggest total advertising expenditures could reach $440 million by November 3, more than doubling the previous record of $210 million set in the 2024 Ted Cruz and Colin Allred contest.

While Talarico has led in fundraising and dominated airwaves for much of the summer, a surge in spending from conservative super PACs has occurred following the 60-day pre-election window. As of mid-September, conservative groups had spent approximately $98.5 million, including $62.4 million from Texas PAC (linked to the Senate Leadership Fund) and $11 million from MAGA, Inc. Talarico’s campaign and supporting groups had spent roughly $53.7 million in advertising by mid-September.

Recent polling indicates the candidates are neck and neck, with Talarico maintaining slight leads in several surveys since the May runoff election. Analysts note that Talarico’s polling performance has exceeded the margins seen by previous Democratic candidates in similar Texas contests.