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Thailand economic growth likely to slow in second quarter
Thailand’s economic growth is projected to slow significantly in the second quarter, according to a Reuters poll of 15 economists. The median estimate suggests a year-on-year expansion of 1.7%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy is expected to contract by 0.6%.
Economists identified weak private consumption as a primary driver of the slowdown. Factors contributing to cautious household spending include high household debt, an ageing population, and an oil shock that increased costs for goods and services, particularly transportation.
While private investment in sectors like electronics and artificial intelligence infrastructure may provide some support, the vital tourism sector is unlikely to offer significant relief. Foreign arrivals were reported to be down 3.2% year-on-year as of August 1, impacted by geopolitical uncertainty and reduced purchasing power in key markets.
Entities
Chamadanai Marknual · Eugene Tan · Krungthai Bank · Moody’s Analytics · Thailand
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [DISPUTED] On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, Thailand's GDP was expected to contract by 0.6%. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] An ageing population, high household debt, and weak productivity are constraining investment and consumption. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Subdued private consumption is identified as a primary drag on economic growth. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Foreign tourism arrivals decreased by 3.2% year-on-year as of August 1. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [DISPUTED] A Reuters poll of 15 economists suggests Thailand's second-quarter growth likely slowed to 1.7% year-on-year. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Economists' forecasts for the second-quarter growth data ranged from 0.9% to 2.2%. kelo.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com